The global economic impact of COVID-19: Three possible scenarios
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5937/bizinfo2001031HKeywords:
COVID-19, Coronavirus, Economic impact, Global recession, Virus outbreakAbstract
This theoretical paper aims at reviewing and forecasting the possible economic after-impact of COVID-19 worldwide. It is entirely based on published sources such as articles, online and print information (e. g. information published on newspapers, Internet and different TV channels). The long last economic impact this viral outbreak is yet to be known as such dreadful news will possibly show up only after once it slowed down or completely wiped out although some of them have already been visible. In this paper, the author predicts three possible scenarios that the world economy might face. He has also provided some action recommendations for the individual Governments and economic organizations in order to reduce (as such loss cannot be prevented completely) the after-effects of such deadly catastrophe that shows up once in a century. The paper is expected to assist as a baseline for further research attempts to be made regarding the economic impact of COVID-19 by the academicians and guide the policy makers to make some recovery plans.
Downloads
References
Bacman, D. (2020). The economic impact of COVID-19 (novel coronavirus). Deloitte. https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/covid-19/economic-impact-covid-19.html
Bermingham, F., (2020). Coronavirus: China’s exports and imports plummet in January and February. The South China Morning Post https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3074060/coronavirus-chinas-exports-and-imports-plummeted-january-and
Bloomberg. (2020). China car sales drop record 80% as virus empties showrooms. Retrieved March 28, 2020, from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-04/china-car-sales-drop-a-record-80-as-virus-adds-to-industry-woes
Bloomberg. (2020). Coronavirus could cost the global economy $2.7 Trillion. Retrieved March 28, 2020, from https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-pandemic-global-economic-risk/
Channel News Asia (2020). US Senate passes one COVID-19 aid package while working on another. Retrieved March 28, 2020 from https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-covid-19-united-states-aid-package-12554196
Fujioka, T. (2020). Japan’s GDP contraction revised to 7.1%, fueling recession fears amid coronavirus crisis. The Japan Times Retrieved. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/09/business/economy-business/japan-gdp-recession/#.Xu6TJWgzbIU
Goodman, P. (2020). Europe is probably in recession. Can its leaders move fast and deliver relief? The New York Times Retrieved https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/09/business/europe-recession-coronavirus.html
Hafner, P., & Krstić, M. (2013). World economic crisis and post-crisis concepts. Ekonomika, 59(4), 76-85.
Hosain, M. S., & Hossain, M. S. (2019). US-China trade war: Was it really necessary? International Journal of Business and Economics, 4(1), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2590676
Hossain, M. S., & Hosain, M. S. (2019). US-China trade conflict: The bottom line. Journal of Business and Economic Management 7(6): 243-249. https://doi.org/10.15413/jbem.2019.0160
Kitanović, D., & Krstić, M. (2010). The impact of the exchange rate on the economic growth of Serbia. Economic Themes, 48(1), 13-29.
Lahart, J. (2020). The virus aftermath won’t be like a hurricane. The Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-virus-aftermath-wont-be-like-a-hurricane-11583529896
Lifewire (2020). Where do iPhone components come from? Retrieved March 28, 2020, from https://www.lifewire.com/where-is-the-iphone-made-1999503
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2020). OECD Economic Outlook, 2020. Retrieved March 28, 2020, from http://thecircular.org/oecd-the-world-economy-is-at-risk-recession-due-to-covid-19/
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2020). OECD Interim Economic Assessment: Coronavirus: The world economy at risk. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. https://www.oecd.org/berlin/publikationen/Interim-Economic-Assessment-2-March-2020.pdf
Reuters. (2020). China February activity contracts at record pace as coronavirus bites. Retrieved March 28, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-pmi-factory-official/china-february-factory-activity-contracts-at-record-pace-as-coronavirus-bites-idUSKBN20N03R
Segal, S., & Gerstel, D. (2020, March 10). The Global Economic Impact of COVID-19: Critical questions. Center for Strategic & International Studies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/global-economic-impacts-covid-19
Stojković, A., Gašić, M., & Perić, G. (2013). The place and role of the consumption taxes in contemporary tax systems. Ekonomika, 59(1), 231-239.
Suhaeli, D., & Kurniati, B. N. (2019). Why do (not) woman entrepreneurs jump into technology based business? Bizinfo (Blace) Journal of Economics, Management and Informatics, 10(2), 95-109. https://doi.org/10.5937/bizinfo1902095S
US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2020). Economic News Release: Employment Situation Summary. Retrieved March 26, 2020, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
World Health Organization. (2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019